CoViD Vacc Wrongs

Foreword:

This blog exists for a particular reason, not that I haven't got enough CoViD blogs (see at the bottom) but I received a CoViD email that demands a response.

That is because the email is full of mis-interpretations of the data/statistics it is referring to, with a devastating conclusion: The vaccines don’t work.

The writer - let's call him A - prides himself in his ability to read statistics ... but there is a problem, he is not good at analysing them, and thus draws the wrong conclusion: They don’t fucking work!

A is falling victim to a very common issue with people who, as he says "our minds are clearly made up” (mine isn’t, I just follow the government recommendations): He does vigorous research … but only to the point when he finds information, numbers, statistics that confirm his bias. Then he stops.

A has not really researched the issue of CoViD and vaccinations, thus he says ... the number of people who died with 2 jabs from covid was actually much higher than those who were unjabbed. This is disputable.

The two main points in A's email are:

1) more vaccinated than un-vaccinated people are diagnosed with CoViD

2) there are more deaths among the vaccinated than the un-vaccinated

Both points are dealt with in a superficial, mis-leading manner by A. In short:

1) true, there are more people with CoViD who are vaccinated; one report says: ... as population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of Covid cases

2) true (for the same reason as 1), but tendentious: just looking at the numbers is not enough, the causes of deaths need to be taken into consideration, as many of the deaths among the vaccinated - while the person may have CoViD - are not due to CoViD

Obviously there is much more to these headlines ... hence this blog; but the bottom line is that A's conclusion: The vaccines don’t work is flawed.

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(The email to which I'm responding - excerpts in blue - is at the bottom;

below that is my original email; and below that move CoViD blogs.)

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Calling me a conspiracy theorist is very dangerous and quite a false accusation.

You believe the government and the media are lying to us.

You are a conspiracy theorist.

Says Kerri Sackville in the Herald: "Reject the anti-vacc rot ...

"As the uncontroversial evidence grows that vaccines save lives, as doctors plead for people to get vaccinated, as COVID-19 becomes a pandemic of the unvaccinated, anti-vax sentiment is indefensible. Tolerance and kindness do have limits. When we extend tolerance to everyone, even those doing harm, we end up undermining our own freedoms and wellbeing. We cannot tolerate intolerance ... and we cannot tolerate anti-vax sentiment, as this leads directly and incontrovertibly to disease and death."

If you had read as many medical papers, scientific literature and did your own research I would respect what you have to say. But you don’t know how to read statistics or medical literature. I actually did statistics as part of my marketing degree so I have some understanding here.

Herein lies your problem, A: You know a lot due to all your research, but - with all due respect - you don’t know enough to make an educated decision about getting vaccinated, as a lot of what you refer to is mis-interpreted.

This is because - while you studied marketing and statistics - you’re not educated in the fields that count: public health, viral diseases, infectious diseases, virus infections, communicable diseases, immunology and epidemiology. For an educated decision you would be best advised to listen to specialists in those fields, like the NSW Chief Health Officer doctor Kerry Chant, who have studied these fields professionally (not as a hobby) all their lives. (Go to my blog 1107.)

But the problem is much bigger … you see, we both know nothing of the science and I do indeed say in my CoViD blogs that I know nothing (I just refer to those who do know). But you think you yourself know enough to arrive at an educated judgement. However, “doing my own research” may lead you down rabbit holes of half digested, mis-interpreted information.

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Before I go into the mis-interpretation aspect, let me say this: Other than falling for mis-information, this is another aspect of this discussion: Not to vaccinate is a selfish decision; it is inconsiderate. We do not just vaccinate not to get CoViD, we also vaccinate to keep everyone in the community safe … it’s easy to say, “oh, I’ll just wait and see,” (Wooohooo, it's me, myself & I) and of course, the longer one waits the safer one will be, because eventually everybody else is vaccinated.

Besides, the stance “I'll wait" disregards the fact that life will be hard when the signs NO VACCINE - NO SERVICE are up; (go to my blog 1105).

As Sydney opens up, a good news story of a little cafe trying to do the right thing by abiding by govt rules. An anti-vaxxer posted a video of himself walking into the cafe, yelling that it was engaging in 'segregation' and urging people not to visit the cafe. In response, the local community rallied, many urging others to patronise the cafe - which they did, in droves. Said the owner, "In my life, I haven't been helped too many times by other people, so to see this, I was surprised ... I'm very grateful." ABC

Furthermore, the longer people wait, the longer it will take for the economy to recover. You know, the greater good versus ones own egotism. I know, I know … you want the best for your family (fuck the greater good), but you probably - unwittingly - are doing your family in.

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On to the main issue now: Mis-information and flawed analyses.

An example is your selective quote from the FAIR WORK COMMISSION [2021] FWCFB 6015 Decision. It says quite rightly, "[134] There is nothing controversial in stating that vaccines do not eliminate the risk of COVID, given that those who are vaccinated can catch and transmit COVID.” This is common knowledge.

Another part-quote from that section [134]: "By way of one example, a report issued by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States on 6 August 2021 looked at an outbreak of COVID in Massachusetts during July 2021. Of the 469 COVID cases identified, 74% were fully vaccinated.”

This is incomplete information (selectively quoted and hence mis-leading); the full information ... referring to the same study in another medium (CNBC) ... health officials say, The agency noted that as population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of Covid cases.

The CDC also said the data has limitations, The CDC also said the report is “insufficient” to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the ... vaccines against Covid.

(The vaccines) are still highly effective, especially in protecting against severe illness and death. Roughly 97% of new hospitalizations and 99.5% of deaths in the U.S. are among unvaccinated individuals, U.S. health officials repeated.

The paragraph [134] concludes saying, "What is clear ... is that the vaccine is not an effective control measure to deal with transmission of COVID by itself.” Doh! Of course that is true too ... nobody in their right mind would claim that the vaccination prevents the transmission of CoViD (anyone vaccinated carries as many Corona Viruses in their nose as anyone not vaccinated); again, nothing controversial here.

But how do you interpret that paragraph? That it is best not to get vaccinated?!

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The key point here is: From now on, due to the large up-take of vaccinations,

the majority of people getting CoViD will have been vaccinated; but ...

97% of hospitalizations and 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated.

So, among those who get CoViD, the vaccinated will have much milder symptoms ... the unvaccinated may get seriously sick. Soon of 100 CoViD cases some 95 will be people who are vaccinated and who will get mild - if any - symptoms. But about 5 will be unvaccinated ... and they will form the pool of hospital admittances, ICU bed occupants, respirator users and the dying.

Furthermore, what about the next point in the FAIR WORK COMMISSION [2021] FWCFB 6015 Decision: “[135] In order for an employer to meet its duties under health and safety laws, it will need to minimise the risk of exposure to COVID in the workplace, which will require employers to apply all reasonably practicable COVID control measures."

"reasonably practicable COVID control measures". Methinks that indeed includes getting vaccinated; but it seems - by the tenor of your communications - you interpret all this as an incentive not to get vaccinated.

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One key concern for anti-vaccers is that the vaccines are not safe, an insidious conspiracy; the truth is ... they save lives, and don't cause deaths: Reuters

The VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) page clearly states that COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, “under the most intense safety monitoring in United States history,” and recommends receiving the vaccine as soon as possible.

"The risk of serious adverse reactions has remained extraordinarily low for all modern vaccines” Our World in Data

History of Vaccines: Since WWII many viral diseases had vaccines invented for their prevention, like Polio, Measels, Influenza, Chickenpocks, Mumps, Wooping Cough, Cholera, Typhoid, Diphtheria, Tuberculosis, Smallpox, Yellow Fever, Meningococcal, Hepatitis A, Pertussis etc …

Our World in Data: Reasonable estimates of lives saved due to vaccinations are in the range of around 5 million lives per year, which implies that between 1980 and 2018 around 150 to 200 million lives have been saved.

To be clear: Vaccination has been the most successful medical procedure ever introduced. It has saved more lives than any other intervention. “The risk of serious adverse reactions has remained extraordinarily low for all modern vaccines;” again: ... COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, “under the most intense safety monitoring in United States history,”

CNN: Covid-19 vaccines saved nearly 280,000 lives in the US

Google search: "How many Deaths from CoViD?" There have been about 219m cases of CoViD 19, and approx. 4.55m deaths.

It is reasonable to suggest that millions of deaths have been prevented by the CoViD vaccines administered.

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Now we get to the crux of the matter, the gist of A's email; where A's methodology of interpreting and analysing data mis-guides him:

If you have the intelligence, you will be able to see that the number of people who died with 2 jabs from covid was actually much higher than those who were unjabbed.

I am quite sure that your interpretation of the data is incorrect; the document just says that people died even though they were vaccinated … but not what the actual cause of death was.

CDC: Vaccine breakthrough cases are expected.

COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control; however, no vaccine is 100% effective at preventing illness. Some fully vaccinated people will get sick, and some will even be hospitalized or die from COVID-19. However, there is evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe for those who are vaccinated and still get sick.

The risk of infection, hospitalisation and death are all much lower in vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated.

I enclose an example from social media: It was claimed from the start of 2021 to 12 Aug. 456 people died who had CoViD while vaccinated against it. That's true.

What was not said was that most of them had secondary health issue; very few of those deaths were attributed to complications due to the vaccination ... "Of these [456], the TGA found nine were linked to immunisation." Australian vaccine death claims are a data dupe. AAP, (see also the screen shots below).

(I think it’s funny that the person publishing that mis-information - excusethetruth - also says: "Statistics Don’t Lie”, after his post was fact checked and deleted.

Yeah, right; any dunce* will agree.) *dunce | noun | a person who is slow at learning

To think A uses these two figures …

… to confirm his bias against vaccinations!

See the full story below; and for your entertainment, here are some choice bon-mots from A: you don’t know how to read statistics or medical literature. And, If you have the intelligence, you will be able to see ... also, If you can’t figure it out, here’s the screen shot; and, This also might be challenging for you ... this is probably my favourite: You need to calm down. But I keep the best for last, Please don’t condescend me.

I agree with you, A, it requires an inordinate amount of applied intelligence to wrap our brain around all of this … so, for now - to keep things simple - let's stick with:

97% of hospitalizations and 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated.

Back to the excerpt above; A’s conclusion is: You will undoubtedly shake your head in disbelief that our lawmakers could say such a thing. But it’s true. The vaccines don’t work. But these are facts. The numbers aren’t lying Carsten. Mainstream media is not reporting the whole truth.

It is a tragic inference that: The vaccines don’t work. Let’s hope his mis-interpretations of the science doesn’t end in tragedy (remember: 97% of hospitalizations and 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated).

The numbers aren’t lying; oh yes, they (sometimes) are ... (Lies, damned lies, and statistics … is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments) ... when they're mis-interpreted, mis-quoted or taken out of context. Any astute researcher knows that; and A, with his distorted analysis, demonstrates just that very point.

Mainstream media is not reporting the whole truth. That is correct … nobody can report the whole truth; it is not available to anybody; it’s naïve to believe otherwise.

But the point is, what the media reports is (largely) true (except for FOX and SKY) … of course it cannot all be true, everybody makes mistakes, but - and this is the difference to the sources A uses - quality mainstream media (ABC, SBS as well as The Conversation, Reuters, AAP) have formidable fact-checking resources and the best analysts and commentators. To believe that conspiracy theory - the media is lying to us - is ignorant and delusional ... in fact it is lazy thinking.

A would be well advised to read the Factcheck report from AAP; another article, Alternative methods’ to treat COVID-19 lack clear evidence would be interesting for him too. In fact, reading this probably would help him to disabuse himself of that conspiracy that our mainstream media are not trustworthy.

Frankly, A's statistics-reading ability is flawed. He tries to make judgements about issues based on selective information that confirms his biases and that may or may not be correct, but that often is incomplete and/or taken out of context … and which - in the first place - is about science he doesn’t understand, science which none of us can understand, since we are not studied, graduated specialists in those fields.

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And since we're talking about mis-information:

Here is a document from the UK government. A country where they are currently discussing 3rd doses right now for people because why?!? They don’t fucking work! (You can also research countries such as Israel on their 3rd jabs)

Yes, many countries are considering 3rd jabs, for you to deduct from that fact that, "they don’t fucking work!" is tragically wrong. Israel.

A good source of information is The Conversation (academic rigour, journalistic flair); they know how to analyse science and statistics.

Why are we seeing more COVID cases in fully vaccinated people? "Vaccines are doing exactly what they’re supposed to do - protecting us from severe disease and death."

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What is the take-away with all this?

We have no idea how much we don’t know (famously, there are known unknowns, but the real problem are the unknown unknowns). How do we overcome this lack of knowledge? By not doing our own research … because - in a complex case like CoViD - we just don’t know what we are looking at.

I’ve said it before: I feel terribly, terribly sorry for anyone who lives in a country where they can’t trust their government. Of course we always question what they’re doing (that’s what we have the independent media for) … and by just turning on the evening news (SBS World News), we can see how lucky we are with the government we have.

What is the bottom line? Where to now? (I’m glad you got this far.) Are you still sitting on the fence? Stop it! And do not do any more research. Just turn on the news and listen to the government health officials, who have studied this stuff all their lives; who - as part of their work - listen to an untold amount of specialists (specialists in the fields of epidemiology, immunology and public health) and who are in the position to analyse and interpret the science.

Get vaccinated; it’s safe and the right thing to do. If this goes against what you've been talking about with your friends, don’t tell them; just do it. Set yourself free.

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Carsten,

You need to back off. Your remarks are aggressive and I chose NOT to respond to your last email.

This will be my last communication with you. You need to calm down.

Calling me a conspiracy theorist is very dangerous and quite a false accusation.

If you had read as many medical papers, scientific literature and did your own research I would respect what you have to say. But you don’t know how to read statistics or medical literature.

I actually did statistics as part of my marketing degree so I have some understanding here.

I also read legislative writing.

You don’t.

I wasn’t going to say anything but you clearly can’t read a medical piece of literature based on some of your comments.

Here is a document from the UK government.

A country where they are currently discussing 3rd doses right now for people because why?!? They don’t fucking work! (You can also research countries such as Israel on their 3rd jabs)

If they had actually trialed these things properly- the proper way - we wouldn’t be in such a mess.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf

The document above is medical literature from the UK government. Please go to pages 17-18.

If you have the intelligence, you will be able to see that the number of people who died with 2 jabs from covid was actually much higher than those who were unjabbed.

Finally.

If you can’t figure it out, here’s the screen shot.

I don’t need you worrying about me.

I’m quite fine.

If the government does release a vaccination such as the ones which are actually viral instead of mRNA, I would consider that, because we do have decades of research and an understanding of them. They actually create herd immunity unlike the mRNA ones.

So yes, I’m not prepared to risk my well-being for the sake of some short-term gains. In fact I’d rather isolate myself while all this is going on to be honest with you.

This also might be challenging for you. It’s an excerpt from a recent Australian court ruling in the fair work commission about vaccine mandates.

The judge in the final hearing notes in relation to covid:

[134] There is nothing controversial in stating that vaccines do not eliminate the risk of COVID, given that those who are vaccinated can catch and transmit COVID. By way of one example, a report issued by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States on 6 August 2021 25 looked at an outbreak of COVID in Massachusetts during July 2021. Of the 469 COVID cases identified, 74% were fully vaccinated. Of this group, 79% were symptomatic. In total, 5 people required hospitalisation and of these, 4 were fully vaccinated. This is not an anomaly – the data from many countries and other parts of the United States provides a similar picture, although obtaining similar data from the United States will now be problematic given the decision by the CDC on 1 May 2021 to cease monitoring and recording breakthrough case information unless the person is hospitalised or dies. What is clear, however, is that the vaccine is not an effective control measure to deal with transmission of COVID by itself.‘

Here is the link to the entire thing in case you feel inclined to read.

https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/decisionssigned/html/2021fwcfb6015.htm?fbclid=IwAR3Rbn6ZuHKhmpj1iLL3vfU8vLQPkxFmz20WDrUwjpKI2Yj3HIV7wgl1Xxs

You will undoubtedly shake your head in disbelief that our lawmakers could say such a thing. But it’s true. The vaccines don’t work. But these are facts. The numbers aren’t lying Carsten. Mainstream media is not reporting the whole truth.

I can send you plenty more ACTUAL medical and legal documents. But our minds are both clearly made up.

Please don’t condescend me by saying Where I’m getting my information from is dubious. I always check my sources and clearly have spent time researching. It’s not an easy stance to take so I need to be sure it’s the right choice for myself and my family.

Please - let’s stop now.

Thanks,

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Dear A,

I’m now writing to you from a position of compassion ... and concern. I am concerned that you have found yourself in a compromised position, due to your choices: I'm making the choices I would like to make.

I think it is those choices that are beginning to make your life difficult. And, frankly, this is only the beginning ... it will get a lot more difficult when more than 80% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Please think about this (I promise, I will not write to you again - unless you want me to - and considering that, I will be very blunt): for your own health - physical and mental - you need a reality check ...

stop believing in conspiracy theories … government and media are not lying to you
the mainstream health officials are correct ... alternative sources are wrong
don't use opinionated internet groups ... they feed you false information
the vaccines are safe … getting vaccinated is the correct way going forward

Like I said, A, I’m writing to you with compassion and love, and out of concern for you and your son. Please make other choices ... ones that are proven to keep people safe - including you and your loved ones.

I am happy to talk the above over with you at any time.

All the best, C.

……………………..

Carsten Burmeister

I have blogged a fair bit about CoViD:

1114 The last Anti-vaccer's Dream

a satire by Paul McDermott